It’s all very simple, really

TeamRecordPointsOpponentPlayoff Scenarios:
The U7 – 61511.08StoogesClinches Playoff Spot If:
1. The U wins
2. The U loses and Fartz loses
3. The U, Hounds and Juice lose and Fartz and Buck win
4. The U, Hounds and Buck lose and Fartz and Juice win
5. The U and Buck lose and Fartz, Hounds and Juice win
6. The U and Juice lose and Fartz, Hounds and Buck win
7. The U, Buck, Hounds and Juice lose and Fartz wins
8. The U, Buck and Juice lose and Fartz and Hounds win

Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot If:
1. The U and Hounds lose and Fartz, Buckguys, Juice win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: The U, Juice, Buck, Hounds
2. The U loses and Hounds, Fartz, Buckguys and Juice win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: The U, Juice, Buckguys

Eliminated from Playoffs If
Wildly unlikely. In the event of a tie, The U holds an 87-point lead in the tiebreaker over Juice and 130+ over Buck and Hounds
Fartz7 – 61260.06S*HeadsClinches Playoff Spot If:
1. Fartz wins
2. Buckguys and Juice lose

Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot If:
1. Fartz and Hounds lose and Buck, Juice and The U, S*Heads win. Five 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, S*Heads, Juice, Buck, Hounds
2. Fartz, Hounds, Juice lose and Buck, S*Heads, The U win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds
3. Fartz, Hounds, Buck lose and Juice, S*Heads, The U win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Juice, S*Heads, Hounds
4. Fartz, Hounds, The U lose and Buck, S*Heads, Juice win. Five 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Buck, Hounds, Juice, S*Heads
5. Fartz loses and Buck, Hounds, Juice, S*Heads, The U win. Four 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Buck, Juice, S*Heads
6. Fartz and Juice lose and Buck, Hounds, S*Heads, The U win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads
7. Fartz and Buck lose and Juice, Hounds, The U, S*Heads win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, S*Heads, Juice
8. Fartz and The U lose and Juice, Hounds, Buck, S*Heads win. Four 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads, Juice
9. Fartz, Hounds, Juice, The U lose and Buck, S*Heads win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads, Hounds
10. Fartz, Buck, Hounds, The U lose and Juice, S*Heads win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Juice, S*Heads, Hounds
11. Fartz, Juice, The U lose and Hounds, S*Heads, Buck win. Three 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads
12. Fartz, Buck, The U lose and Hounds, S*Heads, Juice win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Juice, S*Heads

Eliminated from Playoffs If
In the event of a tie at 7-7 with other teams, Fartz is at a big points scored disadvantage.
Hounds7 – 61379.92
Buckguys6 – 71380.90
Juice6 – 71423.10
S*Heads6 – 71396.24
[table “102” not found /]

One week into the second half, time to grind some first-half tape. Let’s begin with the Draft Day Power Rankings, shall we? As it turns out (so far), the fantasy experts may have been just a bit wide of the mark. Teams picked for 14th back in September, for example, are now accorded the highest honors. Hmmm. Might apologies be in order?

Power Rankings
ESPN
Fantasy Pros
Football Guys
Draft DayWeek 8MoveDraft DayWeek 8Draft DayWeek 8Draft DayWeek 8
Stooges141+ 13
10
1
13
2
12
2
Dollz12– 1
1
3
11
3
1
1
Bama Men132+ 11
14
2
7
1
10
4
The U64+ 2
12
9
6
1
3
3
Buckguys25– 3
9
5
2
4
2
7
Juice46– 2
6
6
3
2
11
5
Heavy Flight107+ 3
2
4
9
7
14
12
Hounds78– 1
8
8
8
9
5
7
Pain Train99– 0
5
6
12
8
6
11
S*Heads810– 2
4
7
14
12
4
8
OverThinkers311– 8
11
13
1
10
8
9
Fartz1112– 1
7
12
5
11
13
10
Hurt Locker513– 8
3
11
10
13
7
13
Commodes1214– 2
13
14
4
14
9
14

(Draft grades and observations are culled from ESPN, Fantasy Pros and Football Guys. The overall rank reflects the sum of each ranker’s Week 8 grades; like a golf card, the lower the sum, the higher the rank. The Stooges’ five combined points, for example, make them the top team in this list.)

From where do those rankings spring? Who knows? It’s either math or magical thinking, which might be a distinction without a difference to us liberal arts majors. Mostly, it appears to be points scored + projected points to be scored. So let’s look at our first-half scoring.

Team Scoring
Weekly Game Scores
Points ScoredAvg/Game100+ GamesHigh GameLow GameUnder 60 Pts61-7071-8081-9091-100101-110111-120121-130Over 130
1Stooges944.10118.107133.8474.58001000241
2Bama Men926.70115.846160.1091.86000030302
3The U917.86114.736149.1494.34000022112
4Heavy Flight911.98114.006155.5880.12000111212
5Dollz900.16112.526134.9286.94000201211
6Buckguys879.72109.975145.3688.60000211211
7Hounds873.66109.214158.5672.62001031102
8S*Heads864.68108.095169.6655.64100021301
9Pain Train822.62102.832122.6876.74001103210
10Juice818.70102.343173.6079.66001222001
11Commodes768.4896.063135.5254.52100401011
12Fartz736.7692.103111.6077.02003022100
13Hurt Locker736.6092.082121.1857.14100320110
14OverThinkers695.3086.911104.7261.42011231000

Is that a lot of points? It sure looks like a lot of points. Let’s see:

  • Ten teams are averaging 100+ points per game; in only three of the past ten years have we seen that many teams average a century through eight games.
  • Five teams have put a total of 900+ points on the board so far this season, more than in any of the past ten years.
  • In the past ten years, the most points scored by one team through eight games is 1024, by Dollz in 2019. Stooges’ 944.10 this year is ninth-most and Alabama Men’s 926.70 is 11th best, in a field of 138.

So that’s the report from the Sunny Side of the Street. On the other side — a gloomier Boulevard of Broken Dreams, if you will — we find three teams who’ve scored in the 700s and one in the 600s. Only twice in the past ten years have fewer teams been stuck in the 700s at this point (two in both 2021 and 2024). OverThinkers are, like five other teams in the past ten years, the sole team still in the 600s. (2017 saw three teams still struggling along in the 600s at this point.)

It’s not actually all that bad, then. But is it just me, or are more players posting single-digits (to say nothing about all the Big Fat Zeroes) this season? Reader, it is mostly me: More than half of Thinkers’ guys — 52%, Jerry! — have “contributed” single digits in a game this season. As the chart below shows, only Commodes and Fartz have endured similar bad days/bad luck/bad coaching. The chart also identifies how often your guys have scored in the teens, the twenties, and the thirties.

Individual Player Scoring
Under 10 Pts% of Total10.1-19 Pts% of Total20-29 Pts% of TotalOver 30 Pts% of Total
Bama Men2133%2742%1320%35%
Buckguys2945%2133%914%58%
Commodes3250%2031%1016%23%
Dollz2438%2539%1219%35%
Fartz3250%2438%711%12%
Heavy Flight2234%2742%1117%46%
Hounds2438%3047%58%58%
Hurt Locker3148%2438%69%35%
Juice2844%2031%1625%00%
Pain Train1930%3656%914%12%
S*Heads2844%1930%1523%23%
Stooges2844%1727%1422%58%
The U2234%2438%1523%35%
OverThinkers3352%2539%69%00%

Conclusions? Here’s a few…

  • Capt. Obvious Dept: The five highest scoring teams so far benefit from the five most 20+ point performances. The outliers — #8 S*Heads and #10 Juice — posted five (Kurt) and six (Juice) 20+ performances in a single, monster game, which may skew the results a bit.
    • Stooges, most points scored, 19 players with a 20+ game, or 30% of all Stooges played
    • The U, 3rd-most points, 18 or 28%
    • S*Heads, 8th-most points, 17 of 26%
    • Bama Men, 2nd-most points, 16 or 25%
    • Juice, 10th-most points, 16 or 25%
    • Dollz, 5th-most points, 15 or 24%
    • Heavy Flight, 4th-most points, 15 or 23%
  • Lt. Obvious Dept: The best-scoring teams get most of their points from guys who score more than 15 points. (This distinction isn’t part of the above chart.) Would you consider these the “best overall rosters”? The most balanced good rosters? The most consistently good rosters?
    • The U got 43.75% of their points from guys who scored 15 or more points
    • Alabama Men, Heavy Flight and Three Stooges got 42.19%
    • Hounds got 40.63%
    • S*Heads got 39.06%
    • Buckguys got 37.50%
    • Dollz got 35.94%
    • Juice got 34.38%
    • Commodes got 31.25%
    • Fartz, Hurt Locker and OverThinkers got 26.56%
    • Pain Train got 25%
  • Where The Stars Are Dept. Every team except Juice and OverThinker have played at least one 30+ point performer so far. Of the eight teams currently power-ranked into a playoff spot:
    • #1 Three Stooges, #5 Buckguys and #8 Hounds have the most (5) such performances. Jonathan Taylor has turned in four such games alone for Stooges, or more than 10 other teams. Buckguys’ Ja’Marr Chase has three, more than five other teams.
    • #7 Heavy Flight has four
    • #2 Dollz, #3 Alabama Men and #4 The U each have three
    • #6 Juice has none

Of course, Power Rankings and points totals aren’t everything. Our playoff bracket as of Week 8 favors #9 Pain Train and #10 S*Heads over #4 The U and #6 Juice. Apparently you still have to win the game in front of you, no matter how many points you do (or don’t) score. But still, hasn’t this been fun?

Shall we give it up for the Stooges? After enduring weeks of good-natured (?) bashing for their draft acumen (see below), the fellas sunk the Dollz — the erstwhile pride of the fleet — on only its second 2025 voyage. There was much rejoicing in Stoogeville, and Thurm tipped his Admiral’s cap. But what does a Week 2 win, or loss, actually mean? It may all depend on how you fared the week before. Are you now 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2?

Since 1990, about 63% of all 2-0 teams have made the playoffs in the NFL. (And since playoff expansion in 2020, about 79% of 2-0 teams have made it.) A 1-1 start drops a team’s chances to between 40% and 50%. And an 0-2 start? Bad, bad, bad. In the NFL, you have about a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Just 43 of 422 teams made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, according to the league.

But that’s the NFL. What about the James Gang? Here’s our track record in the past 10 seasons, since 2015, for the teams on the extremes (2-0 and 0-2) as well as the even-keeled 1-1 squads.

  • 35 teams have started 2-0. Twenty-seven of those teams made the playoffs (77%); of those 27 playoff teams, 16 made the semifinals; of those 16, three were champs: Straight Outta Campton in 2017; Hurt Locker in 2020, and Heavy Flight in 2023.
  • 54 teams have started 1-1. Forty-four of those teams made the playoffs (81%); of those 44, 17 made the semifinals; of those 17, five were champs: Juice in 2022; Pain Train in 2021; Dollz in 2019; OverThinkers in 2018, and Buckguys in 2016.
  • 37 teams have started 0-2. Just 11 of those teams made the playoffs (30%). But get this: more than half of those teams (6) made the semis… and two were champs! Actually, ONE was champ TWICE: Pain Train in 2015 and in 2024. Pain was also runnerup in 2017 and 2022 and, inexplicably, sixth in 2016. Other 0-2 overachievers over the years: S*Heads, Juice, Heavy Flight, Hurt Locker, Straight Outta Campton and It’s All About The U, who all made the playoffs after an 0-2 start.

This year, we have three 2-0 teams, eight 1-1 teams, and three 0-2 teams. The undefeated are Alabama Men, Heavy Flight, and S*Heads, all of whom reside in the Apollo Division. On the other side of the ledger, and in the other, Mayor Jeni Division, are the 0-2 Fartz, OverThinkers, and Straight Outta The Commode.

Is it worth mentioning that the top four scoring teams so far are all in the Apollo? (Men, Flight, S*Heads and Dollz) And that the Apollos as a whole have outscored the Mayor Jeni’s by about 215 points, or an average of 15 per game? And that the Apollos are 10-4 against the Mayor Jeni’s? No, it probably doesn’t merit a mention.

Here’s what might, however. The Stooges may well be a harbinger for a team’s playoff chances. True, the fellas have played just 16 regular season games so far in the James Gang, but bear with me. In 2024, Stooges were 7-7. Against eventual playoff teams, they were 2-6. Against eventual non-playoff teams, they were 5-1. In other words, if you beat the Stooges, you were almost certainly a playoff team. If you lost to the Stooges, you almost certainly were not.

This year so far, Stooges lost to Flight and beat Dollz.

tfw The Draft Grades Come In*

* Oh, I’m sure they’ll be Fine

Survey Says… We’re all Chasing the Dollz this year

The action kicks off this week and everyone’s ready to go… although some may be more ready than others. Looking at you, Dollz. Fantasy Football experts agree (kind of): Thurm’s drafted roster is the best of our bunch, followed by Buckguys, OverThinkers, Juice and Hurt Locker. But fear not, bottom-dwellers Straight Outta The Commode, Alabama Men and Three Stooges: the draftniks found something to like about everyone’s team.

Draft grades and observations are culled from ESPN, Fantasy Pros and Football Guys. The overall rank is an average of each team’s three grades; ties were broken by the highest rating each team earned. With that in mind, here’s how it all breaks down:

Draft Grades 2025

RankTeam
Draft Ranks
In summary…
ESPN
Fantasy Pros
Football Guys
1Dollz
1
11
1
A depth chart darling draft. The RBs are the crown jewel, boasting an A+ grade with Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, and Kyren Williams delivering top-tier production. — Football Guys (FG)
You reached for Thielen, Lions D/ST and Matt Gay, and you should’ve taken Tet McMillan in Round 4 instead of Pat Mahomes (!) — Fantasy Pros (FP)
2Buckguys
9
2
2
A bargain hunter draft reaps a big reward: Josh Allen is a juggernaut and your WRs (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) are nothing short of spectacular — FG
You drafted two Top 3 players (Allen and Chase). Weeks 9 and 10 are bye nightmares but Keenan Allen is a sleeper steal — FP
3OverThinkers
11
1
8
A safe and sound draft. RBs and TEs are a strength, WRs not so much — FG
Two Top 3 players at their position (Gibbs and Kittle) is nice, but you should’ve drafted Justin Jefferson instead of Gibbs in Round 1. — FP
4Juice
6
3
11
A rookie revolution draft. A couple elite starters (CeeDee, McBride) but your overall depth is a big concern — FG
You drafted three Top 3 players (CeeDee, McBride and Dicker) and we like your Chargers stack (Herbert and Hampton) — FP
5Hurt Locker
3
10
7
A boom or bust draft. The TEs are a true powerhouse, boasting an A+ grade for both starters and bench. WRs also bring a lot to the table with a solid starting grade and an outstanding bench grade — FG
Dak is our top QB sleeper and Luther Burden III is a steal in the 14th round — FP
6The U
12
6
3
A ‘reach for the stars’ draft. The QBs are the highlight and the WRs are a powerhouse. Your strong RB bench gives U some strong trade chips — FG
U have two Top 3 players (Jayden Daniels and Eagles D/ST) and a couple steals in Jared Goff (Rd 10) and Najee Harris (Rd 12), but U reached for the Eagles in Rd 9 and Cam Little in Rd 13 — FP
7Hounds
8
8
5
An ADP autopilot draft. Ashton Jeanty and Josh Jacobs are an A+ RB room and the WR room is deep. TEs are a problem — FG
Trevor Lawrence (Rd 11), Brandon Aiyuk (Rd 13) and Romeo Doubs (Rd 15) are steals, but your two Top 3 players (Steelers D/ST in Rd 9 and Brandon Aubrey in Rd 10) are reaches — FP
8S*Heads
4
14
4
A veteran village draft. An A grade nearly across the board (QBs, RBs, TEs, D/ST) but the WRs could be the S*Heads’ Achilles heel — FG
You have two Top 3 players (Saquon and Denver D/ST) but you reached for the Broncos (quel surprise!), Joe Mixon and Jake Elliott. Also, you should’ve taken JaMarr Chase instead of Saquon at 1.01 — FP
9Pain Train
5
12
6
(Speaking of no surprise:) A rookie revolution draft. WRs are a true A+ highlight, and with Joe Burrow gives Pain a formidable passing game — FG
You have one Top 3 player (Justin Jefferson), your Bengals stack (Burrow and Chase Brown) is a thing, and Tyler Warren is our top TE sleeper. Week 10 is a bye nightmare, though — FP
10Heavy Flight
2
9
14
A boom or bust draft. The RBs (Achane and Kamara) are the crown jewel of your draft, giving you dependable weekly scoring. Depth is equally impressive. Your WRs, though? Yikes — FG
You drafted one Top 3 player (Lamar), and Braelon Allen and DeMario Douglas are both Top 5 sleepers. But if you’d drafted Justin Jefferson rather than De’Von Achane at 1.07, you’d have had the best draft in the league — FP
11Fartz
7
5
13
A veteran village draft. The WRs (Puka, AJ Brown, McLaurin, Godwin) create a strong weekly advantage, but those RBs are a sore spot — FG
We wish you’d drafted Jaylen Waddle in Rd 5 rather than David Njoku, and Week 8 is a bye nightmare. But you got two #1 sleepers — RB JK Dobbins and WR Jayden Higgins — and Tre’ Harris is a steal in Rd 15 — FP
12Commodes
13
4
9
An ADP autopilot draft (actually true) got you an A+ WR room (Nico Collins, Brian Thomas and Garrett Wilson). RB production might be a rollercoaster — FG
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is RB2 in sleeper rankings, and JJ McCarthy (Rd 12) and Kyle Williams (Rd 15) are steals — FP
13Bama Men
14
7
10
A bargain hunter draft. You absolutely crushed it at WR (Amon-Ra, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze, Marvin Mims) with both starters and bench boasting A+ grades. QBs, RBs and TEs are average at best — FG
Mims and Cedric Tillman are top 4 WR sleepers, but you reached for Texans D/ST and Tyler Bass. We would’ve liked to see you draft Bowers in Rd 2 rather than Derrick Henry — FP
14Stooges
10
13
12
A steal sniper draft. Your WRs are the clear heroes here, with Drake London and Davante Adams delivering elite production and consistency. The RBs and TEs aren’t flashy but should be stable contributors — FG
Jake Bates is your Top 3 player but you reached for him in Rd 12. We wish you’d have picked Amon-Ra in Rd 1 rather than Jonathan Taylor — FP