The trophy’s been hoisted, the Gatorade poured. What insights, if any, does Tom’s first title afford? Let’s discuss.
Draft gurus are poop. Or maybe draft gurus are poop because they said ‘Bama Men‘s draft was poop, specifically whale poop? Men’s draft was panned, to put it lightly. ESPN called it the worst in the league and FootballGuys pegged it at fourth-worst. Even FootballPros, in calling it the seventh-best, couldn’t resist a dig: “We would’ve liked to see you draft Brock Bowers in Round 2 rather than Derrick Henry.”
Let’s marinate in that one for a moment, shall we? Derrick Henry (that’s him above, in his Alabama days), scored the fourth-most points in the playoffs (80.40) and his 47.60 in the Final was the top title-game performance not only this year, but for the past six Finals as well. (ESPN only archives box scores since 2019.) Heavy Flight’s CeeDee Lamb is a close second to King Henry at 44.20 in the 2023 Final.
Btw, it was in that 2023 Final that Kyren Williams teamed up with Lamb to put a combined 74.3 on the board for Jim’s eventual 178.76 winning points. In the 2025 Final, Drake Maye threw in 32.44 points to add to Henry’s numbers, making their combined 80.44 the best one-two championship punch since at least the 2019 Finals.
Back to the draft reports. Tom “absolutely crushed it at WR,” according to FootballGuys. “QBs, RBs and TEs are average at best.” Again: Oops, babe. Of the five WRs cited in the report, only Amon-Ra St. Brown played a significant role in Men’s playoff run. The Sun God scored the 8th-most points of all playoff players, joining Henry (4th) and Maye (5th) in the top ten playoffs pantheon. Men were the only team to field that triple-threat: Dollz (#2 Bijan and #9 Etienne Jr) and The U (#6 CMC and #10 JSN) placed two apiece in the top ten.
TreVeyon Henderson’s 44.50 points, while not that special, nonetheless were the 17th-most played points scored in our playoffs, giving Tom four in the top 20. Runners-up Fartz had three (Puka, Michael Wilson and Brissett); Hounds had three (Purdy, Jeanty and Pickens); and The U had three (CMC, JSN and Goff).
RBs were the key to 2025 playoff success. Four of the top nine, and nine of the top 19 most-played points in our playoffs came from running backs. WRs occupy three of the top ten and six of the top 20 slots. Three of the top 11 scorers are QBs, and there’s a TE in 7th, 21st, 22nd and 25th place.
No? How about this, then: RBs were the key to making the 2025 playoffs. This year, six of the top eight RB point-scoring teams were in the playoffs, going a combined 52-22 ( a 70% winning clip). Further, those six teams posted a combined “all-play” record this year of 648-444 (60.6%), according to FootballPros. “All-play” is determined by how many teams you would’ve beaten each week besides your scheduled opponent; a perfect weekly record is 13-0.
| Seed | Regular Season Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Rank | RB Points | Rank | Actual | All-Play ** | ||||
| 1 | Stooges | 1656.56 | 1 | 405.42 | 6 | 11 – 3 | 128 – 54 (.700) | ||
| 2 | Flight | 1558.62 | 3 | 492.16 | 3 | 10 – 4 | 109 – 73 (.599) | ||
| 3 | Bama Men | 1508.40 | 6 | 249.42 | 11 | 9 – 5 | 105 – 77 (.577) | ||
| 4 | The U | 1639.64 | 2 | 377.64 | 8 | 8 – 6 | 122 – 60 (.670) | ||
| 5 | Dollz | 1436.44 | 5 | 698.50 | 1 | 9 – 5 | 107 – 75 (.588) | ||
| 6 | Fartz | 1371.60 | 11 | 207.00 | 13 | 8 – 6 | 73 – 109 (.401) | ||
| 7 | Juice | 1528.66 | 4 | 395.40 | 7 | 7 – 7 | 97 – 85 (.533) | ||
| 8 | Hounds | 1459.46 | 9 | 515.50 | 2 | 7 – 7 | 85 – 97 (.467) | ||
Since you asked, here’s the also-rans’ “all-play” records:
- S*Heads 96-85-1 (53%)
- Buckguys 95-86-1 (52.5%)
- Commodes 81-101 (44.5%)
- Hurt Locker 66-116 (36.3%)
- Pain Train 60-122 (33%)
- OverThinkers 49-133 (26.9%)
At any rate, six of the top eight running teams made the 2025 playoffs. How’s that compare to years previous? For apples to apples, let’s compare the top seven rushing teams (or, the top half of the league) in the past ten years for which I have the data. As it turns out, half the Champs had an above-average rushing attack:
- 2025: 5 of the top 7 rushing teams made the playoffs
- 2024: 4 of top 7
- 2023: 3 of top 7, including champ Heavy Flight in 6th spot
- 2022: 2 of top 7
- 2021: 3 of top 7, including champ Pain Train in 6th spot
- 2020: 5 of top 7
- 2019: 5 of top 7, including champ Dollz in top spot
- 2018: 4 of top 7
- 2017: 4 of top 7, including champ Dollz in top spot
- 2015: 6 of top 7, including champ Pain Train in 4th spot
From 2021 through 2023 our playoff teams — all teams, actually — looked elsewhere for their points. In those seasons, RB points averaged 23.8% of all points scored; QB points averaged 18.1% of all points scored, and WR points averaged 34.1%. Before 2021, the split was more like RB 24.8% and QB 19.2% and WR 31.1%. In the past two seasons, it’s been RB 25.5% and QB 17.2% and WR 29.2%.
Eyes glazing over? Sorry. Think of it this way: After four years (2020-2023) of teams getting about a third more of their scoring (as a percentage) from WRs over RBs, in the past two seasons it’s been just 15% more. Maybe it was just Saquon and Henry and Gibbs and Bijan closing the gap last year, and CMC and Bijan and Taylor and Gibbs this year. Or maybe we like RBs more now?
Or some of us do, at least. King Henry’s playoff push notwithstanding, the rushing game wasn’t – and has never been — Alabama Men’s forte. (They’ve finished last in RB Bonus thrice since 2015, 13th once, and 11th twice. Also mid-top ten four times.) This year, Tom’s guys scored the 4th-fewest RB points, perhaps because like his Ravens, Henry was inconsistent. He finished RB7 overall, but his 80.4 playoff points were nearly as many as he scored in weeks 2 through 10 combined. Also, Men usually played with a one-RB three-WR lineup, further depressing their combined RB points. Men were 4-1 in games played with a 2/2 lineup, and 5-4 with 1/3.
So maybe in Tom’s case, it wasn’t so much having a strong backfield as having the right guy in the backfield in the playoffs… which, I believe, is the “league winner” theory of fantasy football.
One guy can carry you to the championship and (with some help) win it for you. ESPN posted its “Top 50 Players on Champion Rosters” the other day; will it surprise you to learn that Men’s guys pop up most often in the top two dozen? Of our top four teams:
- Alabama Men had the 8th (Drake Maye, season QB2), 17th (Amon-Ra, WR3), 18th (Texans, D/ST 2) and 24th (Derrick Henry, RB7) most popular players. And get this: Trevor Lawrence, on Men’s bench all three rounds, scored the most points in the playoffs.
- Hounds had the 6th (Aubrey, K2), 22nd (Pickens, WR4) and 31st (Javonte Williams, RB11) most-rostered players.
- Juice had the 4th (McBride, TE1), and two at 39th (Rice, WR44; Hampton, RB31) most-rostered.
- Dollz had the 3rd (Bijan, RB2), 21st (Kyren Williams, RB10), and two at 26th (Etienne Jr, RB9; Myers, K1) most-rostered.
- Puka was the most popular player on title rosters, and with Michael Wilson gave Fartz two of the top-ten most popular players. Fartz also had #39 AJ Brown.
- The U, too, had two in the top ten: Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the second-most rostered and Christian McCaffrey was the fifth-most. The U also had #31 Sutton and #38 Harvey, and U have to know that seeing the two Broncos that got away just chaps Kurt’s ass…)
- Three Stooges fielded four of the most rostered (#11 Taylor, #30 Wan’Dale, #38 Pats D/ST and #41 Drake London), and
- Heavy Flight had SIX (!) with #12 Achane, #16 Dowdle, #23 Fannin Jr, #27 Seahawks D/ST, #33 Evans, and #40 Egbuka.
The “League Winner” theory would seem to recognize a combination of draft skill, waiver wizardry, and injury luck. Tom drafted Maye, St Brown, Texans D/ST and Henry, who together provided 267.14 of his 385.54 playoff points. Colby Parkinson, picked up on waivers in week 14, put in another 39.90. His biggest injury loss was his 8th-round draft pick Tucker Kraft, who was TE3 at the time he went down in Week 9; Men were 6-2 at that point.
So again, second-worst draft in the league?
Congratulations, Tom. You proved the haters wrong and earned the praise of your peers:
And now, as a reward for reading through all of that, the Payout List:
This year, three of four Quarterfinals feature matchups in which one team beat the other by a million billion points in their regular-season meeting. Does that matter? What of the predictors who foresee three of the four top seeds advancing? Mean anything? How about who’s hot right now, say over the past five weeks? Could that be the key? Here are all those numbers; you be the judge as to which is more important.
(NOTE: The ‘Top 10 Scorers’ tracks the number of a team’s players who’ve finished in the Top Ten weekly scoring over the five-game period.)
| Seed | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterfinal | Previous | Record | Points | ESPN | FB Guys | ||||||
| 1 | Three Stooges | vs Hounds | W 133.84 – 90.98 | 4 – 1 | 583 | W +3.80 | W +3.30 | ||||
| 2 | Heavy Flight | vs Juice | L 173.60 – 80.20 | 4 – 1 | 520 | L -0.39 | L -1.34 | ||||
| 3 | Alabama Men | vs Fartz | W 120.30 – 77.02 | 3 – 2 | 501 | W +10 | W +16.60 | ||||
| 4 | The U | vs Dollz | L 134.92 – 129.72 | 4 – 1 | 580 | W +8.44 | W +14 | ||||
| 5 | Dollz | vs The U | W 134.92 – 129.72 | 3 – 2 | 531 | L -8.44 | L -14 | ||||
| 6 | Fartz | vs Men | L 120.30 – 77.02 | 4 – 1 | 525 | L -10 | L – 6.60 | ||||
| 7 | Juice | vs Flight | W 173.60 – 80.20 | 3 – 2 | 573 | W +0.39 | W +1.34 | ||||
| 8 | Hounds | vs Stooges | L 133.84 – 90.98 | 2 – 3 | 471 | L -3.80 | L -3.30 | ||||
It’s all very simple, really
Let’s figure out who’s going to the Playoffs, shall we? The top seed is Three Stooges, and the winner of the Alabama Men v. Heavy Flight game will claim the #2 Seed; the loser slots into the #3 Seed. After that it gets a little complicated, although we know that Dollz and (barring the nigh-impossible) The U have claimed a spot: Dollz is either the #5 or #6 Seed, and The U is either the #4, the #6, or the #7 Seed.
Juice, S*Heads and Buckguys are all at most peril with their 6-7 records entering the weekend. But even with a loss, each team could tie (in certain circumstances) for a playoff spot.
Fartz seems to be the only team facing a Must-Win game. A loss throws Bill into a blob of as many as five 7-7 teams, all of whom have outscored him greatly in the points tiebreaker. But like Hounds and The U, win and he’s in, no tiebreaker needed, no questions asked.
| Team | Record | Points | Opponent | Playoff Scenarios: |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The U | 7 – 6 | 1511.08 | Stooges | Clinches Playoff Spot If: 1. The U wins 2. The U loses and Fartz loses 3. The U, Hounds and Juice lose and Fartz and Buck win 4. The U, Hounds and Buck lose and Fartz and Juice win 5. The U and Buck lose and Fartz, Hounds and Juice win 6. The U and Juice lose and Fartz, Hounds and Buck win 7. The U, Buck, Hounds and Juice lose and Fartz wins 8. The U, Buck and Juice lose and Fartz and Hounds win Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot If: 1. The U and Hounds lose and Fartz, Buckguys, Juice win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: The U, Juice, Buck, Hounds 2. The U loses and Hounds, Fartz, Buckguys and Juice win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: The U, Juice, Buckguys Eliminated from Playoffs If Wildly unlikely. In the event of a tie, The U holds an 87-point lead in the tiebreaker over Juice and 130+ over Buck and Hounds |
| Fartz | 7 – 6 | 1260.06 | S*Heads | Clinches Playoff Spot If: 1. Fartz wins 2. Buckguys and Juice lose Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot If: 1. Fartz and Hounds lose and Buck, Juice and The U, S*Heads win. Five 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, S*Heads, Juice, Buck, Hounds 2. Fartz, Hounds, Juice lose and Buck, S*Heads, The U win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds 3. Fartz, Hounds, Buck lose and Juice, S*Heads, The U win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Juice, S*Heads, Hounds 4. Fartz, Hounds, The U lose and Buck, S*Heads, Juice win. Five 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Buck, Hounds, Juice, S*Heads 5. Fartz loses and Buck, Hounds, Juice, S*Heads, The U win. Four 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Buck, Juice, S*Heads 6. Fartz and Juice lose and Buck, Hounds, S*Heads, The U win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads 7. Fartz and Buck lose and Juice, Hounds, The U, S*Heads win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, S*Heads, Juice 8. Fartz and The U lose and Juice, Hounds, Buck, S*Heads win. Four 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads, Juice 9. Fartz, Hounds, Juice, The U lose and Buck, S*Heads win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads, Hounds 10. Fartz, Buck, Hounds, The U lose and Juice, S*Heads win. Four 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Juice, S*Heads, Hounds 11. Fartz, Juice, The U lose and Hounds, S*Heads, Buck win. Three 7-7 teams tie for three spots: Fartz, Buck, S*Heads 12. Fartz, Buck, The U lose and Hounds, S*Heads, Juice win. Three 7-7 teams tie for two spots: Fartz, Juice, S*Heads Eliminated from Playoffs If In the event of a tie at 7-7 with other teams, Fartz is at a big points scored disadvantage. |
| Hounds | 7 – 6 | 1379.92 | Dollz | Clinches Playoff Spot If: 1. Hounds win 2. Hounds, Juice, S*Heads lose and Fartz, Buck, The U win 3. Hounds, Buck, S*Heads lose and Fartz, Juice, The U win 4. Hounds, Buck, Fartz, Juice lose and S*Heads, The U win 5. Hounds, Juice, The U, S*Heads lose and Fartz, Buck win 6. Hounds, Buck, S*Heads, The U lose and Fartz, Juice win 7. Hounds, Buck, S*Heads, Juice lose and Fartz, The U win 8. Hounds, Buck, S*Heads, The U, Juice lose and Fartz wins Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot If: 1. Hounds, Fartz lose and Buck, Juice, S*Heads, The U win. Five teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 2. Hounds, Fartz, Juice lose and Buck, S*Heads, The U win. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 3. Hounds, Fartz, Buck lose and Juice, S*Heads, The U win. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Hounds, Fartz 4. Hounds, Fartz, The U lose and Juice, S*Heads, Buck win. Five teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 5. Hounds, S*Heads lose and Juice, Buck, Fartz, The U win. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, Buck, Hounds 6. Hounds, S*Heads, The U lose and Juice, Fartz, Buck win. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: The U, Juice, Buck, Hounds 7. Hounds, Fartz, Juice, The U lose and S*Heads, Buck win. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 8. Hounds, Fartz, Buck, The U lose and Juice, S*Heads win. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Hounds, Fartz Eliminated from Playoffs If In the event of a tie at 7-7 with other teams, Hounds is at a slight points scored disadvantage. Haydn is tied with Buckguys and trails Kurt by 16. |
| Buckguys | 6 – 7 | 1380.90 | Hurt Locker | Clinches Playoff Spot If: 1. Buckguys, Fartz, Hounds, The U win and S*Heads, Juice lose. 2. Buckguys, Fartz, The U win and Hounds, S*Heads, Juice lose. 3. Buck, Fartz win and Hounds, S*Heads, Juice, The U lose Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot with a WIN If: 1. Buck, Juice, S*Heads, The U win and Fartz, Hounds lose. Five teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 2. Buck, S*Heads, The U win and Fartz, Hounds, Juice lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 3. Buck, S*Heads, Juice win and Fartz, Hounds, The U lose. Five teams tie at 7-7 for four spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 4. Buck, Juice, The U, S*Heads, Hounds win and Fartz loses. Four teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 5. Buck, Hounds, S*Heads, The U win and Fartz, Juice lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 6. Buck, Hounds, S*Heads, Juice win and Fartz, The U lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 7. Buck, Fartz, The U, Juice win and S*Heads, Hounds lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, Buck, Hounds 8. Buck, Fartz, Juice win and S*Heads, Hounds, The U lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: The U, Juice, Buck, Hounds 9. Buck, Fartz, The U, Juice, Hounds win and S*Heads lose. Two teams tie at 7-7 for one spot: Juice, Buck 10. Buck, Fartz, Hounds, Juice win and S*Heads, The U lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: The U, Juice, Buck 11. Buck, S*Heads win and Fartz, The U, Hounds, Juice lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 12. Buck, S*Heads, Hounds win and Fartz, The U, Juice lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: S*Heads, Buck, Fartz Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot with a LOSS If: 1. Buck, Juice, S*Heads lose and Fartz, The U, Hounds win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 2. Buck, Juice, S*Heads, Hounds, The U lose and Fartz wins. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 3. Buck, Juice, S*Heads, The U lose and Fartz, Hounds win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 4. Buck, Juice, S*Heads, Hounds lose and The U, Fartz win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck Eliminated from Playoffs If 1. Buck loses and Juice and/or S*Heads win |
| Juice | 6 – 7 | 1423.10 | Pain Train | Clinches Playoff Spot If: 1. Juice, Fartz, The U win and Hounds, S*Heads, Buck lose. 2. Juice, Hounds, Fartz, The U win and Buck, S*Heads lose. 3. Juice, Fartz win and Hounds, S*Heads, Buck, Juice, The U lose. 4. Juice, Fartz, Hounds win and S*Heads, Buck, The U lose. 4. Juice, Fartz, Hounds win and S*Heads, Buck, The U lose. Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot with a WIN If: 1. Juice, Buck, S*Heads, The U win and Fartz, Hounds lose. Five teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 2. Juice, S*Heads, The U win and Fartz, Hounds, Buck lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Hounds, Fartz 3. Juice, Buck, S*Heads win and Fartz, Hounds, The U lose. Five teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 4. Juice, Buck, The U, S*Heads, Hounds win and Fartz loses. Four teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 5. Juice, Hounds, S*Heads, The U win and Fartz, Buck lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Fartz 6. Juice, Buck, Hounds, S*Heads win and Fartz, The U lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 7. Juice, Buck, Fartz, The U win and S*Heads, Hounds lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, Buck, Hounds 8. Juice, Buck, Fartz win and S*Heads, Hounds, The U lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: The U, Juice, Buck, Hounds 9. Juice, Buck, Fartz, The U, Hounds win and S*Heads lose. Two teams tie at 7-7 for one spot: Juice, Buck 10. Juice, Buck, Fartz, Hounds win and S*Heads, The U lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: The U, Juice, Buck 11. Juice, S*Heads win and Fartz, The U, Hounds, Buck lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Hounds, Fartz 12. Juice, S*Heads, Hounds win and Fartz, The U, Buck lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Fartz Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot with a LOSS If: 1. Juice, Buck, S*Heads, Hounds lose and Fartz, The U win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 2. Juice, Buck, S*Heads lose and Fartz, The U, Hounds win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 3. Juice, Buck, S*Heads, The U, Hounds lose and Fartz wins. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 4. Juice, Buck, The U, S*Heads lose and Hounds, Fartz win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck Eliminated from Playoffs If 1. Juice loses and Buckguys and/or S*Heads win |
| S*Heads | 6 – 7 | 1396.24 | Fartz | Clinches Playoff Spot If: 1. S*Heads, Hounds, The U win and Fartz, Buck, Juice lose. 2. S*Heads win and Hounds, Juice, Buck, Fartz, The U lose. 3. S*Heads and Hounds win, and Fartz, Buck, Juice, The U lose. 4. S*Heads and The U win, and Fartz, Buck, Juice, Hounds lose. Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot with a WIN If: 1. S*Heads, Juice, Buck, The U win and Fartz, Hounds lose. Five teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 2. S*Heads, Buck, The U win and Fartz, Hounds, Juice lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 3. S*Heads, Juice, The U win and Fartz, Hounds, Buck lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Hounds, Fartz 4. S*Heads, Juice, Buck, Hounds, The U win and Fartz loses. Four teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 5. S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, The U win and Fartz, Juice lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 6. S*Heads, Juice, The U, Hounds win and Fartz, Buck lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Fartz 7. S*Heads, Juice, Buck, Hounds win and Fartz, The U lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Buck, Hounds 8. S*Heads, Buck win and Fartz, Hounds, Juice, The U lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: S*Heads, Buck, Hounds, Fartz 9. S*Heads, Juice win and Fartz, Hounds, Buck, The U lose. Four teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: Juice, S*Heads, Hounds, Fartz 10. S*Heads, Hounds and Buck win and Fartz, The U, Juice lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for three spots: S*Heads, Buck, Fartz 11. S*Heads, Juice, Hounds win and Fartz, The U, Buck lose. Three teams tie at 7-7 for two spots: Juice, S*Heads, Fartz Clinches Tie for Playoff Spot with a LOSS If: 1. S*Heads, Juice, Buck, lose and Fartz, Hounds, The U win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 2. S*Heads, Juice, Buck, Hounds, The U lose and Fartz wins. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 3. S*Heads, Juice, Buck, The U lose and Hounds, Fartz win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck 4. Juice, Buck, The U, S*Heads lose and Hounds, Fartz win. Three teams tie at 6-8 for one spot: Juice, S*Heads, Buck Eliminated from Playoffs If 1. S*Heads lose and Buckguys and/or Juice win |
One week into the second half, time to grind some first-half tape. Let’s begin with the Draft Day Power Rankings, shall we? As it turns out (so far), the fantasy experts may have been just a bit wide of the mark. Teams picked for 14th back in September, for example, are now accorded the highest honors. Hmmm. Might apologies be in order?
| Power Rankings | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Day | Week 8 | Move | Draft Day | Week 8 | Draft Day | Week 8 | Draft Day | Week 8 | ||||
| Stooges | 14 | 1 | + 13 | |||||||||
| Dollz | 1 | 2 | – 1 | |||||||||
| Bama Men | 13 | 2 | + 11 | |||||||||
| The U | 6 | 4 | + 2 | |||||||||
| Buckguys | 2 | 5 | – 3 | |||||||||
| Juice | 4 | 6 | – 2 | |||||||||
| Heavy Flight | 10 | 7 | + 3 | |||||||||
| Hounds | 7 | 8 | – 1 | |||||||||
| Pain Train | 9 | 9 | – 0 | |||||||||
| S*Heads | 8 | 10 | – 2 | |||||||||
| OverThinkers | 3 | 11 | – 8 | |||||||||
| Fartz | 11 | 12 | – 1 | |||||||||
| Hurt Locker | 5 | 13 | – 8 | |||||||||
| Commodes | 12 | 14 | – 2 | |||||||||
(Draft grades and observations are culled from ESPN, Fantasy Pros and Football Guys. The overall rank reflects the sum of each ranker’s Week 8 grades; like a golf card, the lower the sum, the higher the rank. The Stooges’ five combined points, for example, make them the top team in this list.)
From where do those rankings spring? Who knows? It’s either math or magical thinking, which might be a distinction without a difference to us liberal arts majors. Mostly, it appears to be points scored + projected points to be scored. So let’s look at our first-half scoring.
| Team Scoring | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Scored | Avg/Game | 100+ Games | High Game | Low Game | Under 60 Pts | 61-70 | 71-80 | 81-90 | 91-100 | 101-110 | 111-120 | 121-130 | Over 130 | ||
| 1 | Stooges | 944.10 | 118.10 | 7 | 133.84 | 74.58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | Bama Men | 926.70 | 115.84 | 6 | 160.10 | 91.86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | The U | 917.86 | 114.73 | 6 | 149.14 | 94.34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 4 | Heavy Flight | 911.98 | 114.00 | 6 | 155.58 | 80.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | Dollz | 900.16 | 112.52 | 6 | 134.92 | 86.94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Buckguys | 879.72 | 109.97 | 5 | 145.36 | 88.60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Hounds | 873.66 | 109.21 | 4 | 158.56 | 72.62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | S*Heads | 864.68 | 108.09 | 5 | 169.66 | 55.64 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pain Train | 822.62 | 102.83 | 2 | 122.68 | 76.74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Juice | 818.70 | 102.34 | 3 | 173.60 | 79.66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Commodes | 768.48 | 96.06 | 3 | 135.52 | 54.52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Fartz | 736.76 | 92.10 | 3 | 111.60 | 77.02 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Hurt Locker | 736.60 | 92.08 | 2 | 121.18 | 57.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | OverThinkers | 695.30 | 86.91 | 1 | 104.72 | 61.42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Is that a lot of points? It sure looks like a lot of points. Let’s see:
- Ten teams are averaging 100+ points per game; in only three of the past ten years have we seen that many teams average a century through eight games.
- Five teams have put a total of 900+ points on the board so far this season, more than in any of the past ten years.
- In the past ten years, the most points scored by one team through eight games is 1024, by Dollz in 2019. Stooges’ 944.10 this year is ninth-most and Alabama Men’s 926.70 is 11th best, in a field of 138.
So that’s the report from the Sunny Side of the Street. On the other side — a gloomier Boulevard of Broken Dreams, if you will — we find three teams who’ve scored in the 700s and one in the 600s. Only twice in the past ten years have fewer teams been stuck in the 700s at this point (two in both 2021 and 2024). OverThinkers are, like five other teams in the past ten years, the sole team still in the 600s. (2017 saw three teams still struggling along in the 600s at this point.)
It’s not actually all that bad, then. But is it just me, or are more players posting single-digits (to say nothing about all the Big Fat Zeroes) this season? Reader, it is mostly me: More than half of Thinkers’ guys — 52%, Jerry! — have “contributed” single digits in a game this season. As the chart below shows, only Commodes and Fartz have endured similar bad days/bad luck/bad coaching. The chart also identifies how often your guys have scored in the teens, the twenties, and the thirties.
| Individual Player Scoring | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10 Pts | % of Total | 10.1-19 Pts | % of Total | 20-29 Pts | % of Total | Over 30 Pts | % of Total | |||||
| Bama Men | 21 | 33% | 27 | 42% | 13 | 20% | 3 | 5% | ||||
| Buckguys | 29 | 45% | 21 | 33% | 9 | 14% | 5 | 8% | ||||
| Commodes | 32 | 50% | 20 | 31% | 10 | 16% | 2 | 3% | ||||
| Dollz | 24 | 38% | 25 | 39% | 12 | 19% | 3 | 5% | ||||
| Fartz | 32 | 50% | 24 | 38% | 7 | 11% | 1 | 2% | ||||
| Heavy Flight | 22 | 34% | 27 | 42% | 11 | 17% | 4 | 6% | ||||
| Hounds | 24 | 38% | 30 | 47% | 5 | 8% | 5 | 8% | ||||
| Hurt Locker | 31 | 48% | 24 | 38% | 6 | 9% | 3 | 5% | ||||
| Juice | 28 | 44% | 20 | 31% | 16 | 25% | 0 | 0% | ||||
| Pain Train | 19 | 30% | 36 | 56% | 9 | 14% | 1 | 2% | ||||
| S*Heads | 28 | 44% | 19 | 30% | 15 | 23% | 2 | 3% | ||||
| Stooges | 28 | 44% | 17 | 27% | 14 | 22% | 5 | 8% | ||||
| The U | 22 | 34% | 24 | 38% | 15 | 23% | 3 | 5% | ||||
| OverThinkers | 33 | 52% | 25 | 39% | 6 | 9% | 0 | 0% | ||||
Conclusions? Here’s a few…
- Capt. Obvious Dept: The five highest scoring teams so far benefit from the five most 20+ point performances. The outliers — #8 S*Heads and #10 Juice — posted five (Kurt) and six (Juice) 20+ performances in a single, monster game, which may skew the results a bit.
- Stooges, most points scored, 19 players with a 20+ game, or 30% of all Stooges played
- The U, 3rd-most points, 18 or 28%
- S*Heads, 8th-most points, 17 of 26%
- Bama Men, 2nd-most points, 16 or 25%
- Juice, 10th-most points, 16 or 25%
- Dollz, 5th-most points, 15 or 24%
- Heavy Flight, 4th-most points, 15 or 23%
- Lt. Obvious Dept: The best-scoring teams get most of their points from guys who score more than 15 points. (This distinction isn’t part of the above chart.) Would you consider these the “best overall rosters”? The most balanced good rosters? The most consistently good rosters?
- The U got 43.75% of their points from guys who scored 15 or more points
- Alabama Men, Heavy Flight and Three Stooges got 42.19%
- Hounds got 40.63%
- S*Heads got 39.06%
- Buckguys got 37.50%
- Dollz got 35.94%
- Juice got 34.38%
- Commodes got 31.25%
- Fartz, Hurt Locker and OverThinkers got 26.56%
- Pain Train got 25%
- Where The Stars Are Dept. Every team except Juice and OverThinker have played at least one 30+ point performer so far. Of the eight teams currently power-ranked into a playoff spot:
- #1 Three Stooges, #5 Buckguys and #8 Hounds have the most (5) such performances. Jonathan Taylor has turned in four such games alone for Stooges, or more than 10 other teams. Buckguys’ Ja’Marr Chase has three, more than five other teams.
- #7 Heavy Flight has four
- #2 Dollz, #3 Alabama Men and #4 The U each have three
- #6 Juice has none
Of course, Power Rankings and points totals aren’t everything. Our playoff bracket as of Week 8 favors #9 Pain Train and #10 S*Heads over #4 The U and #6 Juice. Apparently you still have to win the game in front of you, no matter how many points you do (or don’t) score. But still, hasn’t this been fun?
Shall we give it up for the Stooges? After enduring weeks of good-natured (?) bashing for their draft acumen (see below), the fellas sunk the Dollz — the erstwhile pride of the fleet — on only its second 2025 voyage. There was much rejoicing in Stoogeville, and Thurm tipped his Admiral’s cap. But what does a Week 2 win, or loss, actually mean? It may all depend on how you fared the week before. Are you now 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2?
Since 1990, about 63% of all 2-0 teams have made the playoffs in the NFL. (And since playoff expansion in 2020, about 79% of 2-0 teams have made it.) A 1-1 start drops a team’s chances to between 40% and 50%. And an 0-2 start? Bad, bad, bad. In the NFL, you have about a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Just 43 of 422 teams made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, according to the league.
But that’s the NFL. What about the James Gang? Here’s our track record in the past 10 seasons, since 2015, for the teams on the extremes (2-0 and 0-2) as well as the even-keeled 1-1 squads.
- 35 teams have started 2-0. Twenty-seven of those teams made the playoffs (77%); of those 27 playoff teams, 16 made the semifinals; of those 16, three were champs: Straight Outta Campton in 2017; Hurt Locker in 2020, and Heavy Flight in 2023.
- 54 teams have started 1-1. Forty-four of those teams made the playoffs (81%); of those 44, 17 made the semifinals; of those 17, five were champs: Juice in 2022; Pain Train in 2021; Dollz in 2019; OverThinkers in 2018, and Buckguys in 2016.
- 37 teams have started 0-2. Just 11 of those teams made the playoffs (30%). But get this: more than half of those teams (6) made the semis… and two were champs! Actually, ONE was champ TWICE: Pain Train in 2015 and in 2024. Pain was also runnerup in 2017 and 2022 and, inexplicably, sixth in 2016. Other 0-2 overachievers over the years: S*Heads, Juice, Heavy Flight, Hurt Locker, Straight Outta Campton and It’s All About The U, who all made the playoffs after an 0-2 start.
This year, we have three 2-0 teams, eight 1-1 teams, and three 0-2 teams. The undefeated are Alabama Men, Heavy Flight, and S*Heads, all of whom reside in the Apollo Division. On the other side of the ledger, and in the other, Mayor Jeni Division, are the 0-2 Fartz, OverThinkers, and Straight Outta The Commode.
Is it worth mentioning that the top four scoring teams so far are all in the Apollo? (Men, Flight, S*Heads and Dollz) And that the Apollos as a whole have outscored the Mayor Jeni’s by about 215 points, or an average of 15 per game? And that the Apollos are 10-4 against the Mayor Jeni’s? No, it probably doesn’t merit a mention.
Here’s what might, however. The Stooges may well be a harbinger for a team’s playoff chances. True, the fellas have played just 16 regular season games so far in the James Gang, but bear with me. In 2024, Stooges were 7-7. Against eventual playoff teams, they were 2-6. Against eventual non-playoff teams, they were 5-1. In other words, if you beat the Stooges, you were almost certainly a playoff team. If you lost to the Stooges, you almost certainly were not.
This year so far, Stooges lost to Flight and beat Dollz.
tfw The Draft Grades Come In*
* Oh, I’m sure they’ll be Fine
Survey Says… We’re all Chasing the Dollz this year
The action kicks off this week and everyone’s ready to go… although some may be more ready than others. Looking at you, Dollz. Fantasy Football experts agree (kind of): Thurm’s drafted roster is the best of our bunch, followed by Buckguys, OverThinkers, Juice and Hurt Locker. But fear not, bottom-dwellers Straight Outta The Commode, Alabama Men and Three Stooges: the draftniks found something to like about everyone’s team.
Draft grades and observations are culled from ESPN, Fantasy Pros and Football Guys. The overall rank is an average of each team’s three grades; ties were broken by the highest rating each team earned. With that in mind, here’s how it all breaks down:
Draft Grades 2025
| Rank | Team | In summary… | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN | |||||
| 1 | Dollz | A depth chart darling draft. The RBs are the crown jewel, boasting an A+ grade with Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, and Kyren Williams delivering top-tier production. — Football Guys (FG) You reached for Thielen, Lions D/ST and Matt Gay, and you should’ve taken Tet McMillan in Round 4 instead of Pat Mahomes (!) — Fantasy Pros (FP) |
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| 2 | Buckguys | A bargain hunter draft reaps a big reward: Josh Allen is a juggernaut and your WRs (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) are nothing short of spectacular — FG You drafted two Top 3 players (Allen and Chase). Weeks 9 and 10 are bye nightmares but Keenan Allen is a sleeper steal — FP |
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| 3 | OverThinkers | A safe and sound draft. RBs and TEs are a strength, WRs not so much — FG Two Top 3 players at their position (Gibbs and Kittle) is nice, but you should’ve drafted Justin Jefferson instead of Gibbs in Round 1. — FP |
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| 4 | Juice | A rookie revolution draft. A couple elite starters (CeeDee, McBride) but your overall depth is a big concern — FG You drafted three Top 3 players (CeeDee, McBride and Dicker) and we like your Chargers stack (Herbert and Hampton) — FP |
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| 5 | Hurt Locker | A boom or bust draft. The TEs are a true powerhouse, boasting an A+ grade for both starters and bench. WRs also bring a lot to the table with a solid starting grade and an outstanding bench grade — FG Dak is our top QB sleeper and Luther Burden III is a steal in the 14th round — FP |
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| 6 | The U | A ‘reach for the stars’ draft. The QBs are the highlight and the WRs are a powerhouse. Your strong RB bench gives U some strong trade chips — FG U have two Top 3 players (Jayden Daniels and Eagles D/ST) and a couple steals in Jared Goff (Rd 10) and Najee Harris (Rd 12), but U reached for the Eagles in Rd 9 and Cam Little in Rd 13 — FP |
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| 7 | Hounds | An ADP autopilot draft. Ashton Jeanty and Josh Jacobs are an A+ RB room and the WR room is deep. TEs are a problem — FG Trevor Lawrence (Rd 11), Brandon Aiyuk (Rd 13) and Romeo Doubs (Rd 15) are steals, but your two Top 3 players (Steelers D/ST in Rd 9 and Brandon Aubrey in Rd 10) are reaches — FP |
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| 8 | S*Heads | A veteran village draft. An A grade nearly across the board (QBs, RBs, TEs, D/ST) but the WRs could be the S*Heads’ Achilles heel — FG You have two Top 3 players (Saquon and Denver D/ST) but you reached for the Broncos (quel surprise!), Joe Mixon and Jake Elliott. Also, you should’ve taken JaMarr Chase instead of Saquon at 1.01 — FP |
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| 9 | Pain Train | (Speaking of no surprise:) A rookie revolution draft. WRs are a true A+ highlight, and with Joe Burrow gives Pain a formidable passing game — FG You have one Top 3 player (Justin Jefferson), your Bengals stack (Burrow and Chase Brown) is a thing, and Tyler Warren is our top TE sleeper. Week 10 is a bye nightmare, though — FP |
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| 10 | Heavy Flight | A boom or bust draft. The RBs (Achane and Kamara) are the crown jewel of your draft, giving you dependable weekly scoring. Depth is equally impressive. Your WRs, though? Yikes — FG You drafted one Top 3 player (Lamar), and Braelon Allen and DeMario Douglas are both Top 5 sleepers. But if you’d drafted Justin Jefferson rather than De’Von Achane at 1.07, you’d have had the best draft in the league — FP |
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| 11 | Fartz | A veteran village draft. The WRs (Puka, AJ Brown, McLaurin, Godwin) create a strong weekly advantage, but those RBs are a sore spot — FG We wish you’d drafted Jaylen Waddle in Rd 5 rather than David Njoku, and Week 8 is a bye nightmare. But you got two #1 sleepers — RB JK Dobbins and WR Jayden Higgins — and Tre’ Harris is a steal in Rd 15 — FP |
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| 12 | Commodes | An ADP autopilot draft (actually true) got you an A+ WR room (Nico Collins, Brian Thomas and Garrett Wilson). RB production might be a rollercoaster — FG Jacory Croskey-Merritt is RB2 in sleeper rankings, and JJ McCarthy (Rd 12) and Kyle Williams (Rd 15) are steals — FP |
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| 13 | Bama Men | A bargain hunter draft. You absolutely crushed it at WR (Amon-Ra, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze, Marvin Mims) with both starters and bench boasting A+ grades. QBs, RBs and TEs are average at best — FG Mims and Cedric Tillman are top 4 WR sleepers, but you reached for Texans D/ST and Tyler Bass. We would’ve liked to see you draft Bowers in Rd 2 rather than Derrick Henry — FP |
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| 14 | Stooges | A steal sniper draft. Your WRs are the clear heroes here, with Drake London and Davante Adams delivering elite production and consistency. The RBs and TEs aren’t flashy but should be stable contributors — FG Jake Bates is your Top 3 player but you reached for him in Rd 12. We wish you’d have picked Amon-Ra in Rd 1 rather than Jonathan Taylor — FP |
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