Playoff Challenge
Second Season Playoff Challenge
January 2025
UPDATE: Dollz held serve and then some, riding the Eagles’ dominance to overwhelm the rest of us. That it came at the Chiefs’ expense is just icing on the King Cake for Thurm, who apparently HATES KANSAS CITY! Get this: In our regular season, Dollz pulled off the second-most trades (3); authored the third-most acquisitions (29), and played (activated) the third-most different players (67). And only one of those guys was a Chief — Xavier Worthy, who was a Doll for two short weeks in early November. Thurm is a man of his convictions, apparently. And he made it pay off in this Playoff Challenge.
Greg and his six 4X Eagles held on to second place, holding off a run up the scoreboard by the Chiefs-heavy Max. Both fielded lineups at less than full strength, yet they’re in the money and the rest of us are not. There’s a lesson there, I believe.
Final 2024 Payoffs are on the homepage.
posted Jan 30: The Big Game looms, and so do the Dollz. Thurm has parlayed lots of Eagles love — as well as an affection for a few Ravens and Lions — into nearly 1,000 points and… AND! … eight of Philly’s finest who will see a 4X return on their Super Bowl efforts. Greg is in Thurm’s rearview, about 36 points back and boasting six 4X Eagles.
And then there’s Max (of course), who can field as many 4X players as Thurm. He lags Thurm by 118 points but — seven of Max’s guys are Chiefs. So if the Chiefs shut down the Eagles, maybe the freshly affianced Master Myers takes the kitty?
At any rate, here’s the multiplier players we all can bring to the Super Bowl:
| Team | Points | |||||||||||
| Dollz | 975.40 | Hurts | Saquon, Gainwell | AJ Brown, DeVonta | Goedert | Elliott | Eagles | |||||
| Hurt Locker | 939.42 | Hurts | Saquon | AJ Brown, DeVonta | Goedert | Eagles | ||||||
| Heavy Flight | 908.10 | Saquon | Worthy, Kelce | |||||||||
| Buckguys | 887.36 | Saquon | AJ Brown | Hurts, Gainwell, DeVonta, Goedert, Elliott, Eagles D | ||||||||
| Juice | 871.66 | Saquon | AJ Brown, Mahomes, Hunt, Gray, Butker | |||||||||
| Pain Train | 857.60 | Mahomes | Saquon, Pacheco | Worthy, Hopkins | Kelce | Butker | Chiefs | DeVonta, Goedert | ||||
| OverThinkers | 819.50 | Hurts | Saquon | DeVonta, Kelce, Gray | ||||||||
| S*Heads | 760.42 | Saquon | ||||||||||
| The U | 747.86 | AJ Brown | Hurts, Saquon, DeVonta, Goedert, Eagles D | |||||||||
| Hounds | 676.56 | Saquon | AJ Brown, Worthy | Kelce | ||||||||
Second Season Playoff Challenge
January 2024
It all comes down to Kittle.
Or Aiyuk.
Maybe Rice?
The Niners’ Kicker and D/ST?
On to the Super Bowl we go, and is that DOUG still in the lead? I believe it is, but don’t look behind you, buddy, because trouble is gaining fast. KURT, GREG and HAYDN have double (and for Haydn, double-plus) the number of guys still active in Doug’s lineup, and most significantly are able to throw two QBs in the game vs Doug’s none.
That alone might sink the good ship Buckguy, or maybe it won’t? Combined, Mahomes and Purdy are averaging about 35 points per game in these playoffs. Doug’s lead is 47 over Kurt, 60 over Greg and 86+ over Haydn. For the fellas to catch and pass him, it’s probably going to take someone else.
In Doug’s favor, there’s not a lot of differentiation in the top four lineups, save for the QB position. To wit:
- All four have Pacheco
- All four have CMC (hell, everybody has CMC)
- All four have Deebo
- All four have Kelce
The differences:
- Kurt, Greg and Haydn also have Kittle, Doug doesn’t have a second TE
- Kurt and Doug have Rice, Greg and Haydn have Aiyuk
- Kurt has the Chief’s Kicker and Defense, Greg and Haydn have the 49ers’
- Haydn alone has Clyde and Sky Moore
Using their playoff averages, I projected each player’s performance in the Super Bowl. There are some traps, of course: Kelce has come alive in rounds two and three, each time doubling up his round one performance; Rice has gone the other direction (coincidence?), his output in rounds two and three about a third of his round one game; and both Aiyuk and Deebo scored twice the number of points in round three as in round two. So maybe the whole exercise is futile? Probably. But here we go, anyway…
Sunday of Round 2: The One in Which Kurt Makes His Move… Sitting seventh after the Saturday divisional games, Kurt used his Sunday guys to leapfrog into third. And he’s looking good with 12 guys still active (as do Greg, Haydn and Jose). But is it enough to catch Doug?
Oh what a difference a week makes. Top seeds Baltimore and San Francisco have now played and our point totals reflect it. Sunday’s games will eliminate a handful of players, whether Chiefs, Bills or Lions, and could shuffle the leaders: It’s been pretty much Doug and Juice so far, trading the top slot back and forth, but the landscape probably looks different after today’s games.
Super Wild Card weekend is in the rearview, but for Kurt and Haydn it’s full speed ahead. Having not fallen for the banana in the tailpipe that was the Dallas Cowboys, both have their entire roster intact. Jose has lost just one player, and Greg and Max are down just two. Doug and Thurm are down three, and … that’s all I have to say about that. Although: Juice has built a pretty nice lead, even though he’s burned through half his guys. Is it sustainable? We shall see…
Four games down with two to go in Round One, and… Carnage! (For a few of us, at any rate.) I’ll winnow out the eliminated players at the end of the day and create a more condensed grid.
Here are the Standings after the Saturday games of Round One. After two games, one of us — I won’t say whom — is already down two guys!
NFL.com Playoff Challenge
January 2023
Turns out, Brother Max is pretty, pretty good at this Playoff Challenge business: With his win this year, he’s now won it five times and shared the win once. He went with Chiefs early and often, and fielded six of them at 4X in the Super Bowl. The Eagles’ AJ Brown was his seventh 4X, and only his seventh Chief, Pacheco, operated at 1X. Along with Dean, who was Eagles 4X-heavy, he ran away with the fourth round: He put up 432 points, nearly half of his Challenge total. Pops put up 408, and of the rest of the field, only Andy sniffed 300, with 291. Haydn, Jose and Jeff landed in the mid-200s, and the rest of the group were right around the 100 mark.
So Max has those 5 1/2 Challenge wins. Andy and Thurm have won it twice, and Dean and Tom have both won it once and shared the win once (with each other). Rounding out the winner’s circle with a victory apiece are Doug, Jeff and Jim, and Greg has a co-win.
Here’s the revised Payout Grid, with Playoff Challenge results figured in.
Say it ain’t so, Joe. Your Bengals advancing to the Super Bowl was never a sure thing, but at times on Sunday it sure looked likely. Imagine a Cincinnati-Philly matchup: U know some of us were. ‘Twas not to be, however, and now a whole different bunch of y’all are eagerly anticipating your payday.
(Personally, my money is on one of the Myers fellas winning this thing. Literally.)
But, never surrender! Right? We will make our contrarian picks and hope for the best. And for everyone else, the worst.
Here are the number of 4X and 2X players by team who potentially can play for each of us in the Super Bowl:
And here are those guys, identified:
We head to the Conference Finals on Sunday, Jan. 29, and eight teams can field a lineup of at least seven guys at 3X their score. Indeed, six teams can get that 3X multiplier from every spot in the lineup: Andy, Jeff, Jim, Jose (twice: The U and It’s All About The U) and Max. To round it out, Haydn can have seven 3X players and Dean can have six 3X players.
The four remaining teams lost their Bills after the Buffalo loss, and have some holes to fill. Doug has five potential guys at 3X; Greg and Thurm have four, and Kurt has three.
Here are the number of 3X players by team who potentially can play for each of us in the Conference Finals:
And here are those 3X players identified:
NOTE: Deebo was a first-time player for Kurt in the Division Final, and has a 2X multiplier in the Conference Final.