2023 Playoffs
Eight teams qualify for the playoffs:
- The two division winners
- The two division runners-up
- Four at-large Wild Card teams, based on overall record and points scored
Division winners are seeded #1 and #2 as determined by (a) overall record then (b) points scored then (c) head to head result/s
Division runners-up are seeded #3 and #4 as determined by (a) overall record then (b) points scored then (c) head to head result/s
Wild card teams are seeded #5 through #8 as determined by (a) overall record then (b) points scored then (c) head to head result/s.
I believe it was one of the lesser Wise Men who suggested last week that underdog seeds Fartz and OverThinkers had a shot at winning their playoff semifinal. Myhrr-ong, my good Man. Chalk held serve, and now #1 Seed Heavy Flight faces #3 Pain Train in the 2023 James Gang Final.
It’s a clash of heavyweights, each battling for his third league championship. (Juice wears the most crowns, with four, and Greg, Jim, Kurt, Max and Thurm each have two.) And what do they say, Styles makes fights? Let’s sketch the differences, or lack thereof, of our two finalists:
Playoff history
In this corner is Flight, playing in his 10th Playoffs since 2004 and his first Final since 2014. Jim won his second James Gang crown as a ten-win #2 Seed that year; his first came in 2011 as the 12-win top seed. Will history repeat?
In the other corner is Pain Train, playing in his second Final in three years and his fifth in nine. It’s also his 13th playoff appearance since 2008, and his 11th in 12 years. Pain’s playoff seeding at #3 is the best he’s enjoyed since 2017, when he was the #2 Seed (and Finals runner-up to champ Straight Outta Campton). It’s rare air for Max, who’s been a seven-win, lower-seeded Finalist three times, winning twice (2021, 2015). Do you think he prefers the underdog spot?
Regular season record
Heavy Flight is the first #1 Seed to advance to the Finals since Dollz in 2019. Jim has a chance to go wire-to-wire: He got off to the league’s best start (5-0) and never looked back, winning the Mayor Division by four games and clinching the league’s best record with a 12-2 mark, just besting The U at 11-3.
Pain Train started slowly at 2-4, but a 161-point outburst in Week 7 kicked off a winning streak that hasn’t ended yet. (That’s ten in a row, fellas.) Pain ran the table in the Apollo Division, too, en route to a second-place finish at 10-4.
Regular season scoring
Flight scored the most regular season points, 1755.54 or an average of 125.40 per game. Second place? Pain Train, at 1580.70 or 112.91 a game.
Flight outscored opponents by 384.56 points or an average of 27.50 per game. Pain again was runner-up, outscoring by an average clip of 20.14 a game with a total differential of 281.94.
Flight scored 100+ points in 12 of 14 regular season games, topping runners-up Buckguys, Pain Train, The U and Thinkers, who all had ten.
Flight and Pain also have both scored 100+ points in both playoff rounds so far. (The U and Buckguys have as well.)
Roster-building
Flight drafted two of his current playoff starters: Josh Allen and CeeDee Lamb. Two other draftees (Swift and Hockenson) were traded for a third starter (Etienne) and a backup (Waller). His other starters were picked up on waivers, notably Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua (who are both ranked #7 at their position).
Pain drafted four of his current playoff starters: Justin Jefferson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor. Two other draftees (Brian Robinson and Jared Goff) were part of trades for his fifth and sixth starters (Fields and LaPorta). His final two starters were waiver pickups.
According to ESPN, getting the most out of your first two picks was critical this year: “Of the 30 players who are on playoff rosters in at least 50% of ESPN leagues, 12 were selected among the first 25 picks on average.” Jim’s first two picks were Allen and Lamb, Max’s first two were Jefferson and Gibbs.
Roster overview
Flight fields top-ten — actually, top-eight — players at each position. Jim has the #1 QB Josh Allen; the #2 WR (Lamb) and Kicker (Hopkins); the #4 RB (Etienne) and D/ST (Colts); the #7 RB (Kyren) and WR (Puka), and the #8 TE (McBride). This lineup averages 133.65 points per game.
Pain puts five top-nine players on the field: TE3 (LaPorta); D/ST 5 (Browns); RB6 (Gibbs); RB8 (Kamara), and K9 (Gay). His other starters are future Falcon (Seahawk?) Justin Fields at QB19, and Jonathan Taylor and Justin Jefferson at a misleading #39 at their positions. This lineup averages 126.38 points per game (after adjusting for JJ’s injury).
Game Predictions
ESPN calls the game for Heavy Flight, at 127.20 to 123.38. ESPN sets Jim’s win probability at 51%
FantasyPros also calls it for Heavy Flight, at 121.34 to 113.64. The win probability here is 58.7%
Football Guys makes it a sweep for Flight, at 131.27 to 119.49. Flight’s win probability here is 65%.
‘Hello, Sweetheart. Get me Re-Write!’
I know, I know: So anachronistic. To think that newsrooms still employ staff to edit and sharpen copy before it gets published online! That’s crazy, right? I mean, what’s the point of AI if it can’t abolish human copy editors, to say nothing of newsrooms, and just clog our search results with rudimentary, dumbed-down text? The whole point is the ads, right? Who cares about the words?
And oh yes, there’s the “sweetheart” thing, too.
At any rate … That’s Comrade Fartz above (on the right), and re-writing history is his aim in this year’s playoffs. In 2018, the Playoff Semifinalists were #1 Seed Heavy Flight, #2 Seed OverThinkers, #3 Seed Bob ‘n’ Weave, and #5 Seed Fartz. (More or less, seeding was a bit different in those days.) Swap Pain Train into the #3 Seed and — hey presto! — you’ve got the 2023 Playoff Semifinal Field.
In those 2018 Semifinals, Thinkers beat Fartz and Weavers beat Flight. Get this: the Weavers vs Flight game ended in a 94-94 tie. The box score is lost to the ages, but we can assume that Craig’s played RB points overcame those of Jim’s, hence the Weavers’ win. In the Final, Thinkers beat Weavers. (Thank you again, Antonio Brown.)
In these Semifinals, Fartz matches up with Heavy Flight and Thinkers with Pain Train. So a Final featuring the #5 Seed vs the #3 Seed is certainly possible. The oddsmakers favor a #1 vs #3 slate, however: Flight is a 27-point favorite and Pain Train a 7-point favorite. Can Bill write a sequel that sends him to the Finals? It would be an upset. Or would he say, a twist?
On Eagles‘ Rams’ and Bills’ Wings
Heavy Flight is the top seed in the 2023 James Gang playoffs, the first 12-game winner in a 14-game season since he won 12 in his championship year of 2011. (Uh oh, I think we might be in trouble here.) Andy, first as the Hungry Possums in 2004 and then as Straight Outta Campton in the 17-game 2020 season, has also chalked up 12 wins in a season. Hurt Locker also won 12 in that 2020 season, and was also crowned the Champ that year! So a dozen wins doesn’t guarantee you a title, but it sure seems to help.
Flight brings a lineup full of Top Ten players to this year’s playoff party, including five ranked in the top three at their position, headed by QB1 Josh Allen. His Rams — WR10 Puka Nacua and RB11 Kyren Williams — bring up the rear on this hit parade, but together have accounted for nearly 40 points a game. Not bad for a rear guard. Other playoff teams who rival that kind of firepower: Hounds, with five top-nine players; and It’s All About The U, with five top-12.
Who’s coming in hot? Dr. Jim updated his Heat Index (see below) after Week 13, and determined that Pain Train was still the hottest commodity since Week 10, followed again by Flight. The other playoff teams were ranked #3 Buckguys, #4 Alabama Men, #5 The U, #6 The U, #7 Hounds, #8 Thinkers and #12 Fartz.
No data yet on Week 14, but Fartz probably won’t find himself in the basement once those numbers come in. This past weekend, OverThinkers extended their losing streak to four after scoring the fewest points in any game this year. Thinkers now own the best (183.46) and worst (47.54) performances of the year. Yay?
| APOLLO DIVISION | |||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | ||||
| The U | 11 | 3 | .786 | 5 | 1 | 1544.41 | |||
| Pain Train | 10 | 4 | .714 | 6 | 0 | 1580.20 | |||
| Fartz | 9 | 5 | .643 | 2 | 4 | 1464.04 | |||
| Hounds | 8 | 6 | .571 | 2 | 4 | 1569.72 | |||
| OverThinkers | 7 | 7 | .500 | 2 | 4 | 1566.64 | |||
| Buckguys | 6 | 8 | .429 | 2 | 4 | 1523.62 | More points scored than Campton | ||
| Campton | 6 | 8 | .429 | 2 | 4 | 1450.96 | |||
| MAYOR DIVISION | ||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| Heavy Flight | 12 | 2 | .857 | 5 | 1 | 1755.54 | ||||
| Alabama Men | 8 | 6 | .571 | 5 | 1 | 1505.74 | ||||
| Dollz | 5 | 9 | .357 | 4 | 2 | 1506.36 | Better division record than Juice | |||
| Juice | 5 | 9 | .357 | 2 | 4 | 1364.30 | ||||
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 10 | .286 | 2 | 4 | 1366.70 | More points than Katy | |||
| Katy’s Brother | 4 | 10 | .286 | 2 | 4 | 1277.98 | ||||
| S*Heads | 3 | 11 | .286 | 1 | 5 | 1254.07 | ||||
| WILD CARD STANDINGS | ||||||
| Seed | Won | Lost | .Pct | Tiebreaker (if any) | ||
| Fartz | 5 | 9 | 5 | .643 | 1464.04 | |
| Hounds | 6 | 8 | 6 | .571 | 1569.72 | |
| Thinkers | 7 | 7 | 7 | .500 | 1566.64 | |
| Buckguys | 8 | 6 | 8 | .429 | 1523.62 | More points than Campton |
| Campton | 6 | 8 | .429 | 1450.96 | ||
| Juice | 5 | 9 | .385 | 1364.30 | ||
| Dollz | 5 | 9 | .385 | 1506.36 | ||
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 10 | .308 | 1366.70 | ||
| Katy’s Brother | 4 | 10 | .308 | 1277.98 | ||
| S*Heads | 3 | 11 | .231 | 1254.07 | ||
One week to go, one Playoff spot to fill. Four teams are bunched at 5-8, and each has a chance. Although not every chance is created equal…
Gather ’round, ‘Gangers, and let us consider each and every possible playoff scenario in its most minute detail! Don’t worry, it’s actually pretty simple. Let’s start with the Wild Card Standings:
| WILD CARD STANDINGS | |||||||
| Seed | Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Tiebreaker (if any) | ||
| Fartz | 5 | 8 | 5 | .615 | — | 1354.54 | |
| Thinkers | 6 | 7 | 6 | .583 | — | 1519.10 | More points than Hounds |
| Hounds | 7 | 7 | 6 | .583 | — | 1456.72 | |
| Dollz | 8 | 5 | 8 | .385 | — | 1427.12 | Most points of 5-8 teams |
| Buckguys | 5 | 8 | .385 | — | 1408.58 | 2nd most points of 5-8 teams | |
| Juice | 5 | 8 | .385 | — | 1287.56 | 3rd most points of 5-8 teams | |
| Campton | 5 | 8 | .385 | — | 1280.32 | 4th most points of 5-8 teams | |
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 9 | .308 | 1 | 1257.52 | More points than Katy’s Brother | |
| Katy’s Brother | 4 | 9 | .308 | 1 | 1195.60 | ||
| S*Heads | 3 | 10 | .231 | 2 | 1152.33 | ||
Four teams have a real shot: Dollz, Buckguys, Juice and Campton are each 5-8. Hurt Locker and Katy’s Brother are just a game back at 4-9, but trail too much in Points Scored to have a realistic chance. Even if only Hurt and Katy win in Week 14 and we have six 5-9 teams, Hurt would have to outscore Dollz by 170 points and Katy would need 232+.
Each 5-8 team’s path to a playoff spot boils down to three scenario in Week 14:
- You’re IN with a win and a loss by the other 5-8 teams
- You’re IN with a win and more total points scored than any other winning 5-8 team
- You’re IN with a loss and losses by all other 5-8 teams and more points scored than those other 5-8 teams.
Again with the realistic: The best chance Juice and Campton have at that last spot is to win in Week 14 and for Dollz and Buckguys to lose. Like Greg and Chris’s situation, Juice and Andy’s points scored trail those of Thurm and Doug by a lot. Almost certainly too much to overcome in one game, but you never know.
As for the bracket, here’s where we stand — and did I bury the lede? Dollz made the projected Playoffs, for the first time this year!
| APOLLO DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Remaining Schedule | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| The U | 10 | 3 | .769 | vs Hurt | 5 | 1 | 1408.62 | ||||
| Pain Train | 9 | 4 | .692 | vs Juice | 6 | 0 | 1496.58 | ||||
| Fartz | 8 | 5 | .615 | vs S*Heads | 2 | 4 | 1354.54 | ||||
| OverThinkers | 7 | 6 | .583 | vs Flight | 2 | 4 | 1519.10 | More points scored than Hounds | |||
| Hounds | 7 | 6 | .583 | vs Dollz | 2 | 4 | 1456.72 | ||||
| Buckguys | 5 | 8 | .385 | vs Men | 2 | 4 | 1408.58 | More points scored than Campton | |||
| Campton | 5 | 8 | .385 | vs Katy | 2 | 4 | 1280.32 | ||||
| MAYOR DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Remaining Schedule | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| Heavy Flight | 11 | 2 | .846 | vs Thinkers | 5 | 1 | 1644.92 | ||||
| Alabama Men | 8 | 5 | .615 | vs Buckguys | 5 | 1 | 1415.22 | ||||
| Dollz | 5 | 8 | .385 | vs Hounds | 4 | 2 | 1427.12 | Better division record than Juice | |||
| Juice | 5 | 8 | .385 | vs Pain | 2 | 4 | 1287.56 | ||||
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 9 | .308 | vs The U | 2 | 4 | 1257.52 | More points than Katy | |||
| Katy’s Brother | 4 | 9 | .308 | vs Campton | 2 | 4 | 1195.60 | ||||
| S*Heads | 3 | 10 | .231 | vs Fartz | 1 | 5 | 1152.33 | ||||
Coming In Hot
Thanks to Dr Jim and his Power Rankings analysis of our season, we’ve learned some important things about ourselves. We’ve learned that Thurm’s 4-8 record isn’t his fault: the Great Schedule Maker in the Sky stuck him with the league’s toughest schedule. (Also, Joe Burrow was mostly hurt and is now out.) We’ve learned that Fartz owns S*Heads: Bill outscored Kurt in nearly every week. Pay up, Kurtsan. And we’ve learned that Pain Train was right when he told us, during the Draft, that he’d be a holy terror once Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara got on the field.
The 8-4 Pain is riding a six-game winning streak into the final two weeks of the regular season and has a shot at first place in the Apollo. (The Train must contend with 9-3 The U and 8-4 Fartz for that honor). So he’s hot; hotter, even, than 10-2 Heavy Flight — by Dr Jim’s own metrics.
Here’s Jim’s Power Rankings for teams in two stretches: Weeks 7-12, and Weeks 10-12. I’ve ranked teams by the Week 10-12 period. Recency bias? Perhaps. And perhaps the loss of Taylor in Week 13 and possibly 14 will sidetrack Train, if only a bit. Yes, if only…
| Won | Lost | Won | Lost | Power Ranking | Won | Lost | Power Ranking | |||
| Pain Train | 8 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4.86 | 3 | 0 | 2.43 | ||
| Heavy Flight | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4.86 | 2 | 1 | 2.14 | ||
| Buckguys | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3.43 | 1 | 2 | 2.07 | ||
| Dollz | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | .407 | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | ||
| Men | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4.07 | 2 | 1 | 1.86 | ||
| OverThinkers | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3.64 | 1 | 2 | 1.86 | ||
| The U | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3.07 | 2 | 1 | 1.79 | ||
| Juice | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2.14 | 2 | 1 | 1.64 | ||
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2,57 | 1 | 2 | 1.36 | ||
| Hounds | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.64 | 1 | 2 | 1.29 | ||
| Campton | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2.21 | 2 | 1 | 1.29 | ||
| Fartz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1.71 | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | ||
| Katy’s Brother | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1.71 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | ||
| S*Heads | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | ||
Two Weeks to Go, Three Spots to Fill
Pain Train and Alabama Men claimed their playoff spots this past weekend, which leaves just three available slots for the rest of us. (HAL3000 is calculating playoff scenarios and promises to spit out its conclusions before Sunday’s games.) Tom is locked into second place in the Mayor Division: even if Men lose out and Juice wins out, their identical 7-7 records would be trumped by Tom’s better division record (4-2 vs 3-3).
| APOLLO DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Remaining Schedule | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| The U | 9 | 3 | .750 | vs Fartz, Hurt | 4 | 1 | 1278.60 | ||||
| Pain Train | 8 | 4 | .667 | vs Thinkers, Juice | 5 | 0 | 1366.82 | Div. 5-0 better than Fartz 2-3 | |||
| Fartz | 8 | 4 | .667 | vs The U, S*Heads | 2 | 3 | 1259.04 | ||||
| OverThinkers | 7 | 5 | .583 | vs Pain, Flight | 2 | 3 | 1428.02 | ||||
| Hounds | 6 | 6 | .500 | vs Campton, Dollz | 1 | 4 | 1297.66 | ||||
| Campton | 5 | 7 | .417 | vs Hounds, Katy | 2 | 3 | 1192.34 | Div. 2-3 better than Buckguys 2-4 | |||
| Buckguys | 5 | 7 | .417 | vs Flight, Men | 2 | 4 | 1290.02 | ||||
| MAYOR DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Remaining Schedule | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| Heavy Flight | 10 | 2 | .833 | vs Buckguys, Thinkers | 5 | 1 | 1482.62 | ||||
| Alabama Men | 7 | 5 | .583 | vs Katy, Buckguys | 4 | 1 | 1288.64 | ||||
| Juice | 5 | 7 | .417 | vs S*Heads, Pain | 2 | 3 | 1193.44 | ||||
| Dollz | 4 | 8 | .333 | vs Hurt, Hounds | 3 | 2 | 1325.94 | Div. 3-2 better than Hurt and Katy’s 2-3 | |||
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 8 | .333 | vs Dollz, The U | 2 | 3 | 1194.00 | More points than Katy | |||
| Katy’s Brother | 4 | 8 | .333 | vs Men, Campton | 2 | 3 | 1127.68 | ||||
| S*Heads | 2 | 10 | .167 | vs Juice, Fartz | 0 | 5 | 1047.66 | ||||
| WILD CARD STANDINGS | |||||||
| Seed | Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Tiebreaker (if any) | ||
| Fartz | 5 | 8 | 4 | .667 | — | 1259.04 | |
| Thinkers | 6 | 7 | 5 | .583 | — | 1428.02 | |
| Hounds | 7 | 6 | 6 | .500 | — | 1297.66 | |
| Buckguys | 8 | 5 | 7 | .417 | — | 1290.02 | Most points of 5-7 teams |
| Juice | 5 | 7 | .417 | — | 1193.44 | 2nd most pts of 5-7 teams | |
| Campton | 5 | 7 | .417 | — | 1192.34 | 3rd most pts of 5-7 teams | |
| Dollz | 4 | 8 | .333 | 1 | 1325.94 | Most points of 4-8 teams | |
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 8 | .333 | 1 | 1194.00 | 2nd most pts of 4-8 teams | |
| Katy’s Brother | 4 | 8 | .333 | 1 | 1127.68 | 3rd most pts of 4-8 teams | |
| S*Heads | 2 | 10 | .167 | 3 | 1047.63 | ||
And Then There Were Three
ESPN tells us that three teams have now locked in a playoff spot, and who am I to argue? Flight got in last week, and now Week 11 wins by Fartz and The U have secured them a spot as well. There are still five slots open, and the seeding is to be determined as well. Play on, ‘Gangers!
| APOLLO DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Remaining Schedule | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| The U | 8 | 3 | .727 | vs Thinkers, Fartz, Hurt | 3 | 1 | 1144.84 | Div. 3-1 better than Fartz 2-2 | |||
| Fartz | 8 | 3 | .727 | vs Campton, The U, S*Heads | 2 | 2 | 1174.42 | ||||
| Pain Train | 7 | 4 | .636 | vs Buckguys, Thinkers, Juice | 4 | 0 | 1228.54 | Div. 4-0 better than Thinkers 2-2 | |||
| OverThinkers | 7 | 4 | .636 | vs The U, Pain, Flight | 2 | 2 | 1327.64 | ||||
| Buckguys | 5 | 6 | .455 | vs Pain, Flight, Men | 2 | 3 | 1166.88 | Div. 2-3 better than Hounds 1-4 | |||
| Hounds | 5 | 6 | .455 | vs Men, Campton, Dollz | 1 | 4 | 1176.5 | ||||
| Campton | 4 | 7 | .364 | vs Fartz, Hounds, Katy | 1 | 3 | 1098.46 | ||||
| MAYOR DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | Remaining Schedule | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| Heavy Flight | 9 | 2 | .818 | vs Dollz, Buckguys, Thinkers | 4 | 1 | 1330.96 | ||||
| Alabama Men | 7 | 4 | .636 | vs Hounds, Katy, Buckguys | 4 | 1 | 1195.10 | ||||
| Dollz | 4 | 7 | .364 | vs Flight, Hurt, Hounds | 3 | 1 | 1214.28 | Better div record than Hurt & Juice | |||
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 7 | .364 | vs Juice, Dollz, The U | 2 | 2 | 1082.00 | Better div record than Juice | |||
| Juice | 4 | 7 | .364 | vs Hurt, S*Heads, Pain | 1 | 3 | 1057.36 | ||||
| Katy’s Brother | 3 | 8 | .273 | vs S*Heads, Men, Campton | 1 | 3 | 1032.42 | ||||
| S*Heads | 2 | 9 | .182 | vs Katy, Juice, Fartz | 0 | 4 | 989.41 | ||||
| WILD CARD STANDINGS | |||||||
| Seed | Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Tiebreaker (if any) | ||
| Thinkers | 5 | 7 | 4 | .636 | — | 1327.64 | More points than Pain |
| Pain Train | 6 | 7 | 4 | .636 | — | 1228.54 | |
| Hounds | 7 | 5 | 6 | .455 | — | 1176.5 | More points than Buck |
| Buckguys | 8 | 5 | 6 | .455 | — | 1166.88 | |
| Dollz | 4 | 7 | .364 | 1 | 1214.88 | Most points of 4-7 teams | |
| Campton | 4 | 7 | .364 | 1 | 1098.46 | 2nd most pts of 4-7 teams | |
| Hurt Locker | 4 | 7 | .364 | 1 | 1082.00 | 3rd most pts of 4-7 teams | |
| Juice | 4 | 7 | .364 | 1 | 1057.36 | 4th most pts of 4-7 teams | |
| Katy’s Brother | 3 | 8 | .273 | 2 | 1032.42 | ||
| S*Heads | 2 | 9 | .182 | 3 | 989.41 | ||
Heavy Flight ready for TakePlayoff
Dr. Jim is in. With the win in Week 10, Heavy Flight is the first team to lock in a playoff spot. Now 9-1, Flight can finish no worse than second in the Mayor Division. Don’t believe me? ESPN projects his Playoff Percentage at 100%.
| APOLLO DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| OverThinkers | 7 | 3 | .700 | — | 2 | 1 | 1212.24 | Div. 2-1 | Pts +193.28 | |||
| The U | 7 | 3 | .700 | — | 2 | 1 | 1018.96 | Div. 2-1 | |||
| Fartz | 7 | 3 | .700 | — | 1 | 2 | 1086.32 | Div. 1 -2 | |||
| Pain Train | 6 | 4 | .600 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1107.58 | ||||
| Buckguys | 5 | 5 | .500 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1050.52 | Div. 2-2 | |||
| Hounds | 5 | 5 | .500 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1098.68 | ||||
| Campton | 3 | 7 | .300 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 978.60 | ||||
| MAYOR DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| Heavy Flight | 9 | 1 | .900 | — | 4 | 0 | 1230.36 | ||||
| Alabama Men | 6 | 4 | .600 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1048.10 | ||||
| Dollz | 4 | 6 | .400 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1099.94 | ||||
| Hurt Locker | 3 | 7 | .300 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 969.40 | Div. 1-2 | Pts. +15.8 | |||
| Katy’s Brother | 3 | 7 | .300 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 953.60 | Div. 1-2 | Pts. -15.8 | |||
| Juice | 3 | 7 | .300 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 955.52 | Div. 0-3 | |||
| S*Heads | 2 | 8 | .200 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 906.13 | ||||
Four games to go and seven of eight playoff spots are still up for grabs. True, some teams seem to have a playoff spot in hand, but we all know how easily they can slip away. (And I don’t care how many Gripzilla reps you do every day. It happens, okay?) A .500 record is within nearly everyone’s reach — 13 of 14 teams could go at least 7-7 — and chances are pretty good that one and perhaps two 7-7 teams will make it. In fact, it’s almost guaranteed.
How do we know? A .500 team made the playoffs in four of the six seasons of either 12- or 14-game schedules. In 2021, in fact, four 7-7 teams made the playoffs: Buckguys, Campton, Pain Train and S*Heads. Three went to the semifinals (Campton, Pain and S*Heads) and Max beat Kurt to take the title.
| WILD CARD STANDINGS | |||||||
| Seed | Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Tiebreaker (if any) | ||
| The U | 5 | 7 | 3 | .700 | — | 1018.96 | |
| Pain Train | 6 | 6 | 4 | .600 | — | 1107.58 | |
| Hounds | 7 | 5 | 5 | .500 | — | 1098.68 | Points +48.16 over Buckguys |
| Buckguys | 8 | 5 | 5 | .500 | — | 1050.52 | |
| Dollz | 4 | 6 | .400 | 1 | 1099.94 | ||
| Campton | 3 | 7 | .300 | 2 | 978.6 | Points +9.20 over Hurt Locker | |
| Hurt Locker | 3 | 7 | .300 | 2 | 969.40 | Points +13.88 over Juice | |
| Juice | 3 | 7 | .300 | 2 | 955.52 | Points +1.92 over Katy’s Bro | |
| Katy’s Brother | 3 | 7 | .300 | 2 | 953.60 | ||
| S*Heads | 2 | 8 | .200 | 3 | 906.16 | ||
As for Kurtsan? Let us remember that a 5-8 Juice won the title — the title, Jerry! — in 2010. So yes, we’re sayin’ there’s a chance.
But where’s Andy?
Of the eight teams in the playoff picture right now, six are Apollo teams and two are Mayor teams. The Apollos have left room only for Mayor’s two automatic qualifiers: first-place Flight and second-place Alabama Men. From It’s All About The U to Fartz to Thinkers to Pain Train to Buckguys to Hounds, the postseason is shaping up as the Apollo 6 and a couple other guys.
So which Apollo team, you may ask, currently is missing from the playoff bracket? That would be Campton, whose 3-5 record is still better than all but three Mayor teams. That’s probably annoying to Andy. But surely his three losses by a combined 5.6 points — by 0.28 to Juice, by 4.94 to Heavy Flight, and by 0.38 to Alabama Men — must be really annoying.
But cheer up, son. The folks at FantasyPros think you have the best chance of all the current non-playoff teams to make the tournament.
Playoff projections as of Week 8
| APOLLO DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| The U | 7 | 1 | .875 | — | 2 | 0 | 865.36 | ||||
| Fartz | 6 | 2 | .750 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 908.5 | ||||
| OverThinkers | 5 | 3 | .625 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 968.38 | ||||
| Pain Train | 4 | 4 | .500 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 889.68 | Div. 2-0 | 1.000 | |||
| Buckguys | 4 | 4 | .500 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 837.60 | Div. 1-1 | .500 | |||
| Hounds | 4 | 4 | .500 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 871.66 | Div. 0-2 | .000 | |||
| Campton | 3 | 5 | .375 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 811.50 | ||||
| MAYOR DIVISION | |||||||||||
| Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Won | Lost | Tiebreaker (if any) | |||||
| Heavy Flight | 7 | 1 | .875 | — | 2 | 0 | 991.96 | ||||
| Alabama Men | 5 | 3 | .625 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 824.82 | ||||
| Katy’s Brother | 3 | 5 | .375 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 779.18 | ||||
| Dollz | 2 | 6 | .250 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 844.98 | Div. 1-1 | .500 | |||
| Hurt Locker | 2 | 6 | .250 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 727.00 | Div. 0-1 | .000 | |||
| Juice | 2 | 6 | .250 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 761.34 | Div. 0-2 | Points + 51.9 | |||
| S*Heads | 2 | 6 | .250 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 709.44 | Div. 0-2 | Points – 51.9 | |||
| WILD CARD STANDINGS | |||||||
| Seed | Won | Lost | .Pct | GB | Tiebreaker (if any) | ||
| OverThinkers | 5 | 5 | 3 | .625 | — | 969.38 | |
| Pain Train | 6 | 4 | 4 | .500 | — | 889.68 | Points +18.02 over Hounds |
| Hounds | 7 | 4 | 4 | .500 | — | 871.66 | Points +34.06 over Buckguys |
| Buckguys | 8 | 4 | 4 | .500 | — | 837.60 | |
| Campton | 3 | 5 | .375 | 1 | 811.50 | Points +32.32 over Katy’s Brother | |
| Katy’s Brother | 3 | 5 | .375 | 1 | 779.18 | ||
| Dollz | 2 | 6 | .250 | 2 | 844.98 | Points +83.64 over Juice | |
| Juice | 2 | 6 | .250 | 2 | 761.34 | Points +34.34 over Hurt | |
| Hurt Locker | 2 | 6 | .250 | 2 | 727.00 | Points +17.56 over S*Heads | |
| S*Heads | 2 | 6 | .250 | 2 | 709.44 | ||
Halftime Adjustments
Midway through the regular season now, and there’s change afoot.
- The U claims the undisputed top spot in the Apollo Division, bumping Fartz into second, and grabs the #2 Seed in the playoffs while Bill slips into the #3 slot.
- Alabama Men stays in the #4 Seed and second place in the Mayor Division, but puts a bit more air between themselves and the five third-place teams chasing them.
- Pain Train and Campton have again swapped spots in the bracket: Max moves into the #8 spot previously occupied by Andy, who had a week earlier evicted Max and taken his place there. What goes around, comes around.
Men on the Move
Projected Playoffs as of Week 6
The team with the smallest margin of victory this week makes the biggest impact in the projected playoffs. Before Alabama Men beat Campton by a scant 0.38 points in Week 6, Tom was unseeded, Andy was the 7 Seed and Pain Train was the 8 Seed. Now the Men are the 4 Seed, Campton is the 8 Seed, and Max is unseeded. (But not for long — he just got Justin Fields in a trade with Pop!)
Buckguys are on the move, too, vaulting into the 7 Seed after outscoring all of us this week. Doug would’ve had the top score in Week 5 as well if not for Dollz’s spectacular 172.58, and indeed the Buckguys’ 268.24 points in the past two weeks are second only to Thurm’s output.
Too Soon?
Projected Playoffs as of Week 5
| Top Four Seeds | Overall | Division | Points | Notes |
| 1. Heavy Flight | 5 – 0 | 0 – 0 | 596.04 | Mayor leader |
| 2. Fartz | 4 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 579.86 | Apollo leader |
| 3. The U | 4 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 516.92 | Apollo runner-up |
| 4. Katy’s Brother | 2 – 3 | 0 – 0 | 529.50 | Mayor runner-up |
| Bama Men | 2 – 3 | 0 – 0 | 498.88 | Mayor 3rd place |
| Hurt Locker | 2 – 3 | 0 – 0 | 467.68 | Mayor 4th place |
| S*Heads | 2 – 3 | 0 – 0 | 424.84 | Mayor 5th place |
| Wild Card Seeds | Overall | Points | Head2Head |
| 5. OverThinkers | 3 – 2 | 595.22 | |
| 6. Hounds | 3 – 2 | 579.86 | |
| 7. Campton | 2 – 3 | 516.92 | |
| 8. Pain Train | 2 – 3 | 512.76 | |
| Bama Men | 2 – 3 | 498.88 | |
| Hurt Locker | 2 – 3 | 467.68 | |
| Buckguys | 2 – 3 | 451.16 | |
| S*Heads | 2 – 3 | 424.84 | |
| Juice | 1 – 4 | 508.38 | |
| Dollz | 1 – 4 | 496.92 |